California Foreclosure Activity Up by the Biggest Margin in 14 Years is the Bust Starting?

Although the foreclosure rate in California soared in the second quarter, it is still not clear exactly how bad this is. It certainly is not good, however in spite of the soaring foreclosure rate, foreclosures are still below normal.

In the time period April through June lenders 20,752 default notices to homeowners, up 67.2% from the same period last year. When a homeowner receives a default notice, foreclosure is still quite a way off. After the first default notice the homeowner may still have a number of options before they lose their home to foreclosure. The default notice is sent to a homeowner who is late with their mortgage payments.

These statistics have been compiled by the company DataQuick since 1992. The jump in default notices is the largest since DataQuick began compiling these statistics.

The quarterly high for default notices files was in the first quarter of 1996 when 59,897 notices were sent out to homeowners.

There are a number of other factors that need to be watched. These include the amount of equity the homeowner has in the home and the type of mortgage they have. This default activity bears watching but does not necessarily mean the housing market is about to collapse.

Of homeowners that receive default notices, only about 7% actually go into foreclosure and lose their homes. It is not like the market is going to be flooded with homes in foreclosure. However the appreciation of prices is slowing quite a bit. Homeowners who depended on that appreciation to continually refinance and take out equity are the ones that will be feeling the pain. For investors the market bears close watching.

Marshall Prentice the president of DataQuick believes the default rate would almost have to double before home values would be affected. The spike in defaults is slowing the appreciation of of home values. In San Diego and Sacramento home values are flat. These are two areas in California that saw appreciation rates soar. San Diego and Sacramento are two areas in California that are vulnerable to falling home prices.

Andy Goldman has contibuted articles on finance to numerous publications over the past 15 years. He is owner of http://www.carealestateinvest.com